金融時報:Bright spots in the world economy

作者:2012年12月30日金融時報
when the countdown to midnight is over, few will look back at 2012 as a cheerful year for the world economy. The eurozone fell back into recession, with countries on its periphery paying the highest price in terms of job losses and falling living standards. Britain experienced its own double-dip and is now in its slowest recovery in 100 years. Strong figures for the third quarter confirmed that the US economy is in better health than Europe’s. However, even for the US there was no trace of the sharp rebound that some analysts had hoped for.


Yet this gloom may be overdone. Looking beyond the western world, 2012 had no shortage of bright spots to choose from. Take China. The hard landing that many had feared for Beijing did not happen, and the economy continued to grow at a sustained rate of about 8 per cent. The country is slowly rebalancing, as the proportion of national income destined for consumption is on the rise. And while its small and medium-sized enterprises are still starved of credit, the steps Beijing is taking on the road to financial liberalisation mean foreign capital could soon come to the rescue.

True, policy inaction has transformed the Indian hare into a tortoise. Red tape and high labour costs are tying up Brazil’s growth. But their regional competitors are rising fast. With growth rates of more than 6 per cent, Indonesia is tipped to replace India as the “I” in the Brics club. Meanwhile, Mexico is benefiting from the reshoring of US companies from Asia. Were its new president to deliver on the promise to take on drug crime and fight off industrial oligopolies, Mexico would be in the position to outshine Brazil as Latin America’s most dynamic economy.

On the road to prosperity, few countries are marching more rapidly than Africa’s. The International Monetary Fund expects sub-Saharan Africa to have grown by 5 per cent in 2012. Four of the 10 fastest-growing nations in the world were African. Of course, it is much easier for countries starting from low levels of GDP to have record rates of growth. And with inequality widespread, a large chunk of Africa’s population still lives on less than two dollars a day. Yet large-scale investment from China in particular means infrastructure is improving and manufacturing growing. A middle class is rising and, with it, demands for better governance are strengthening.

Looking ahead to 2013, the developing world will continue to provide the best economic news. According to forecasts by the IMF, gold and silver in the race for fastest growth will go to South Sudan and Libya. These countries, however, are rebounding from years of war and destruction. Bronze will go, perhaps appropriately, to copper-rich Mongolia, whose natural resources – which also include gold, uranium and coal – are feeding China’s commodities hunger. More generally, resource-rich economies from Africa, Asia and Latin America will continue to do well.

As for the laggards, the list is unsurprisingly dominated by eurozone members. Six out of the eight countries for which the IMF forecasts a contraction in 2013 are in the eurozone. Even Germany and France are among the worst 20 performers. Is this an inevitable outcome? As austerity constrains the public purse, the economic outlook will depend on a pick-up of confidence in the private sector. This is difficult, but not impossible. The bold steps taken by the European Central Bank have brought down yields on peripheral bonds. Reforms passed in Spain, Ireland, Portugal and Greece mean their economies are rebalancing and their current accounts improving.

No one should expect 2013 to be much better than 2012. But those making this wish tonight at midnight should not feel completely hopeless about it.

2013年世界经济的亮点
当午夜倒计时结束后,很难有谁会在回顾过去时,会把2012年视为一个全球经济表现令人振奋的年份。欧元区再次陷入衰退,其外围国家在失业增加和生活水平下降方面付出了最高昂的代价。英国也遭遇了双底衰退,现在正处于100年来最缓慢的复苏之中。第三季度的强劲数据证实,美国经济的健康状况好于欧洲。但即便在美国,也并未出现一丝一毫某些分析人士所期待的大规模复苏的迹象。
然而,这种悲观情绪可能过头了。放眼西方世界之外,2012年仍不乏表现亮眼的地区。以中国为例。很多人担心的硬着陆并未出现,中国经济继续以约8%的速度增长。中国经济已开始缓慢地再平衡,消费占国民收入的比例正在上升。尽管中小企业仍面临信贷匮乏困境,但中国政府已走上金融自由化之路,这意味着外国资本可能会很快伸出援手。
确实,政策不作为印度“兔”变成了“乌龟”。繁文缛节和较高的劳动力成本正阻碍巴西的发展。但它们的地区竞争对手正迅速崛起。经济增速超过6%的印尼将取代印度跻身“金砖国家”(Brics)俱乐部。同时,墨西哥正受益于美国公司从亚洲回流。如果墨西哥新任总统兑现其打击毒品犯罪和行业寡头垄断的承诺,该国将超过巴西,成为拉美最具活力的经济体
在奔向繁荣的道路上,几乎没有哪个国家的前进速度快于非洲。国际货币基金组织(IMF)预测,非洲撒哈拉以南地区今年将增长5%。在全球10个增长最快的国家中,就有4个位于非洲。当然,就国内生产总值(GDP)起点较低的国家而言,获下创纪录增速要容易的多。在非洲,不平等现象普遍存在,很多人的每日生活费用不足2美元。然而,大规模投资(特别是来自中国的投资)意味着基础设施正在改善,制造业正在增长。中产阶级正在壮大,随之而来的是,对于改善治理的要求也在提高。
展望2013年,发展中世界将继续带来最喜人的经济消息。据IMF预测,在争夺最快增速的竞争中,南苏丹利比亚将分别斩获金牌和银牌。然而,这些国家正从战争和破坏的时期中复苏过来。铜牌很可能将被铜矿丰富的蒙古国摘去,该国包括黄金、铀和煤炭在内的自然资源,正满足中国对大宗商品的渴求。从更广的范围来看,来自非洲、亚洲和拉美的资源丰富的经济体仍将会有良好表现。
至于落后者,这个名单毫不意外地主要由欧元区成员国占据在IMF预测2013年经济将会收缩的8个国家中,欧元区占了6个。甚至德国和法国也列在表现最差的20个国家之列。这一结果不可避免吗?由于紧缩措施令国库紧张,经济前景将取决于对私营部门信心的升温。避免这一结果很难,但并非不可能。欧洲央行采取的大胆举措拉低了外围国家债券的收益率。西班牙、爱尔兰、葡萄牙和希腊纷纷通过了改革方案,意味着它们的经济已开始再平衡,它们的经常账户正在改善。
谁也不会指望2013年的经济表现会比2012年强很多。但那些在今天午夜时分祈祷2013年会更好的人,应该不会对来年感到彻底绝望。
译者/梁艳裳






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