作者：经济学人 2010年8月16日经济学人中文网
第一，中国近几年的经济增长确实引人瞩目，然而快速接替日本（成为全球第二大经济体）同样也反映了日本令人失望的经济增速。相比于中国经济的繁荣，这个事实更像是在说明此时正是日本经济的阵痛时期（其他强势经济将面临陷入经济低迷，进入日式经济停滞的危险）。
第二，中国仍保持着极低的人均收入。中国人比美国人多花了三倍的时间，生产值却连美国的一般都不到。这有点误导了——中国城市生产率并未落后美国太多，然而被农村上亿贫困农民在经济增长中有限的贡献给抵消殆尽，然而生产总值仍使观察家倍受鼓舞，极大的夸张了中国经济的发展程度。
第三点，中国的艰巨挑战仍在前方。正如普拉萨德所言：
在历史长河之中，没有哪个国家能够在实际意义上比肩中国：它的地域如此之大，在世界上占有绝对统治地位，然而却在人均收入和其他发展指标上远远落后于其他国家。在人均收入这一点上，中国与其他发达国家还有巨大鸿沟；即使以目前的经济增速发展下去，中国仍需一代人的努力才能达到发达经济体的发展水平。
中国经济增长世上百万的人民从可怕的贫困走了出来；基于这点，的确值得庆贺。不过，经济转变的进程对于中国和全世界来说仍然困难重重。
译者：alevinia
Economist ：China Second in line
Aug 16th 2010, 13:36 by R.A. | WASHINGTON
CHINA has, at long last, surpassed Japan in terms of nominal GDP, making the Chinese economy the world's second largest. Second quarter output in China came in at $1.337 trillion, to Japan's $1.288 trillion (Japan's output was larger in the first quarter; for comparison, America's second quarter nominal output was $3.522 trillion). The shift is sure to be widely discussed and widely misinterpreted. There are a few key things to mention.
First, while Chinese growth has been truly impressive in recent decades, the rapid overtaking of the Japanese economy also reflects years of disappointing growth there. This story is as much about Japan's travails (and the risk to other rich economies facing a descent into Japanese-style stagnation) as it is China's boom.
Second, China remains a very poor country in per capita terms. It uses over four times as many citizens as America to produce less than half America's output. That's a bit misleading—urban productivity in China doesn't lag America by quite as much but is offset by the limited growth contribution of China's hundreds of millions of rural poor. Still, the total output figures encourage observers to vastly overstate the developmental level of the Chinese economy.
And third, significant challenges remain ahead. As Eswar Prasad says:
There are virtually no historical parallels for a country that is so large and dominant in absolute terms and yet that lags far behind many other countries in terms of per capita income and other indicators of development. There is still a yawning gap in per capita income levels between China and the advanced economies and, even at present growth trajectories, it will take a generation for China to achieve the level of development of advanced economies.
Growth in China has led hundreds of millions of people out of dire poverty and is cause for celebration. But the process of transition is going to continue to be a difficult one for China and the world.
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